One of the key items being discussed at the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, this week is a voluntary global target to increase electricity’s share of total final energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035. This 35 by 35 target is based on analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) on what is needed to keep the 1.5°C global warming target within reach.

Currently, electricity is estimated to make up just 23.4 per cent of the energy delivered to consumers, known as final energy – a figure that has increased by only 6.7 percentage points since 2000. This means that hitting the target will require the rate of electrification to quadruple compared with the first quarter of the 21st century and triple compared with the rate between 2020 and 2025.

Judit Hecke at New Climate Institute, a German think tank, says such an acceleration is possible but “the challenge is getting policies, investment and infrastructure moving at the same pace”.

Progress on renewable energy has been encouraging, with renewables making up a higher proportion of overall electricity production year after year, and renewable capacity additions have been setting new records each year. In 2024, the most recent IRENA data, nearly 32 per cent of global electricity production came from renewable sources compared with just 18 per cent in 2000.

Renewable energy capacity has increased from 0.8 terawatts in 2000 to 5.2 terawatts in 2025. But this is a long way from the COP28 pledge for UN member states to reach 11 terawatts of renewable capacity by 2030.

However, Hecke points out that the electrification target includes electricity regardless of how it is generated, meaning that a country could make progress while still heavily relying on coal and gas in the power sector.

Electrification, renewables and energy efficiency should be looked at together as the “three pillars of the energy transition”, says Hecke. “At COP31, governments should back the target as part of this wider transition and set out how they will deliver it nationally.”

Jan Rosenow at the University of Oxford says the 35 by 35 target is “broadly the right level of ambition” and it is achievable now that electric vehicles, electrical industrial heat and heat pumps are often the cheapest options.

“Most new electricity generation built today is renewables and batteries. And electric technologies are so much more efficient that they cut fossil fuel use even on today’s grids, [which] are getting cleaner every year,” he says.

The share of energy supplied by electricity varies widely from sector to sector, with transport a long way behind buildings and industrial applications.

Politics is also a big constraining factor, with many governments seemingly unwilling to commit to ambitious targets. The US has withdrawn from the global climate framework entirely and will be the only major economy absent from COP31 negotiations this week.

Meanwhile, there are question marks about countries that have voiced support for the 35 by 35 target, like the UK, which has also set a legally binding target to meet net-zero emissions by 2050. This week, it has been reported that the UK government is expected to weaken its electric vehicle targets.

The Lancet Countdown for 2026, an annual report on the links between climate change and health, showed that global preparedness for the transition to a net-zero emissions economy fell from 0.48 in 2024 to 0.38 in 2025, with 1 being the highest preparedness score achievable.

The researchers said that the drop in the preparedness score, which is based on a country’s capacity for the transition compared with its dependence on fossil fuels, indicates that the gap between climate ambition and delivery has widened.

Last month, the UN Emissions Gap report acknowledged that it is now impossible to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but there is still hope that we could stay under 2°C of warming if countries cut emissions sharply.

In a statement to IRENA said achieving 35 per cent electrification by 2035 won’t be sufficient to meet the temperature objectives on its own and renewables are a key component.

“What matters now is the speed and scale of action. Faster emissions reductions can help limit the magnitude and duration of any temperature overshoot and reduce the associated climate risks,” the agency said.